The forecast
In its ENSO diagnostic discussion issued October 8, 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center kept an El Niño Advisory in effect and said a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January–March 2027. CPC also cautions that with an event this strong, the chances of impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, "though not guaranteed." Its next monthly discussion was scheduled for November 12, 2026. (CPC discussion)
South Bay rainfall to date
| NWS station | Rain since July 1 | Normal to date | Percent of normal |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose | 0.27 in. | 0.99 in. | 27% |
Source: NWS San Francisco Bay Area, Area Precipitation Information product, issued 2:15 AM PST November 11, 2026 (preliminary data as of midnight).
What heavy rain does to South Bay roofs
South Bay roofs usually fail in storms because of long sun exposure, not constant damp: shingles that have dried and cracked over many hot summers can lift or tear in wind, and flat and low-slope Eichler roofs can pond and leak at seams and drains when heavy rain arrives.
The seasonal pattern
San Jose's reroof permits drop in winter: over 2016–2025, December averaged about half as many as August (San José permit data). That can mean shorter waits in winter, if the weather cooperates.
If you wait
Clear gutters and valleys, fix slipped tiles, and photograph any stains so you can track changes.
Storm damage and insurance
See our Bay Area El Niño insurance guide.
Every roofer we work with is licensed, insured and highly reviewed by Bay Area homeowners.
Get a free replacement quoteFrequently asked questions
Is it easier to book a roofer in winter?
San Jose permit data shows fewer reroofs start in December, so schedules can be shorter if weather allows.
Do tile roofs handle heavy rain better?
The tiles shed water, but worn underlayment beneath them can still leak.
What should Eichler owners do before storms?
Clear roof drains and check seams around skylights.
Sources
Sources reviewed November 11, 2026. Figures are published estimates and official fees, not quotes. Confirm prices, permits and requirements with your contractor and building department. This page is general information, not legal or insurance advice.